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Fundability checklist + market size

Score the evidence you can show on 18 things hardware investors say they look for, then size your market bottom-up. You get a score, your top gaps, and TAM, SAM, and SOM from your own numbers.

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01 / 19 Checklist
The team includes someone who has taken a physical product from prototype to production volume.

Checklist item 1

Criterion C1 · a16z and Accel on Mind Robotics, 2026-03-11; YC, 2015-02-10

A prototype exists that performs the core function, separate from any prototype built to look impressive.

Checklist item 2

Criterion C2 · YC, 2015-02-10

Units have been built and sold to paying customers, with the number, price, and date recorded.

Checklist item 3

Criterion C3 · YC library, Eric Migicovsky

Unit economicsUnit economics (hardware) The revenue and costs attributable to selling one unit, showing whether each sale makes or loses money before fixed costs. Glossary → are written down at a target volume: bill of materialsBill of materials (BOM) The complete list of every part, quantity, and approved source needed to build a product; it drives purchasing, cost, and manufacturing. Glossary →, labour, landed costLanded cost The full cost of getting a unit to your warehouse: factory price plus freight, insurance, duties, tariffs, customs fees, brokerage, and handling. Glossary →, and gross marginGross margin Revenue minus cost of goods sold, as a percentage of revenue; it shows how much each sale leaves to pay for engineering, marketing, overhead, and profit. Glossary →.

Checklist item 4

Criterion C4 · Eight Sleep to YC, 2024-05-08; a16z factory economics, 2026-02-17

Cash conversion is modelled: inventory days, receivable days, payable days, and the working capital they require.

Checklist item 5

Criterion C4 · a16z factory economics, 2026-02-17

A named manufacturing plan exists: who builds it, at what volume, with toolingInjection mold tooling (soft vs hard) The molds that make plastic parts; soft tools are cheaper and faster but wear sooner, hardened steel tools cost more and last far longer. Glossary → and capacity decisions recorded.

Checklist item 6

Criterion C5 · a16z, 7 hires, 2026-07-20

The supply chain is mapped beyond tier one, with the specific risks named.

Checklist item 7

Criterion C5 · a16z, 7 hires, 2026-07-20

The certification path is written down for each market, with cost, lead timeLead time The time between placing an order and receiving it; for some parts, tooling and production slots it runs to months and dictates the schedule. Glossary →, and dependency order.

Checklist item 8

Criterion C6 · YC, 2015-02-10; a16z, 7 hires, 2026-07-20

There is evidence of the product operating in a real environment, with hours, units, or sites recorded.

Checklist item 9

Criterion C7 · a16z, 7 hires, 2026-07-20; Eclipse

The defensibility claim is specific: what a competitor cannot copy, and why, in one sentence.

Checklist item 10

Criterion C8 · Eight Sleep to YC, 2024-05-08; Eclipse

The market is sized bottom-up from named customers, with each input sourced and dated.

Checklist item 11

Criterion C9 · YC Series A guide; TechCrunch, 2022-11-17

The revenue model uses the price the customer will actually pay, and the volume the business can actually build.

Checklist item 12

Criterion C9, C4 · a16z factory economics, 2026-02-17; IDC, 2026-07-01

The capital ask matches the stage: the amount, the dilution, and the milestones it buys.

Checklist item 13

Criterion C10 · Root; Lux; Eclipse, 2026-04-07

The plan shows what happens at 10 times the volume: yield, capacity, cost per unit, and cash.

Checklist item 14

Criterion C4, C11 · a16z factory economics, 2026-02-17

There is a dated schedule of what gets built next and what it proves.

Checklist item 15

Criterion C11 · YC, "Fast Over Fancy", 2015-02-10; Eight Sleep, 2024-05-08

Pre-sales, launch, and press commitments are checked against what can be delivered, and against what was promised.

Checklist item 16

Criterion C12 · YC, "Selective Inattention", 2015-02-10

The AI component changes the product or its cost curve, or is absent on purpose.

Checklist item 17

Criterion C13 · a16z Machine Age Fund, 2026-08-28; Dealroom, 2026-02-10

The money plan covers the asset, not only the payroll: tooling, inventory, certification, and the financing route.

Checklist item 18

Criterion C14 · a16z factory economics, 2026-02-17

Size your market

Market size

Enter your own numbers. Each layer is asked for separately, because a single market-size number hides the work. Percentages run from 0 to 100.

Total market (TAM)

All the units in your category in one year, times the price a customer really pays.

Count customers and units. Date and source each number.
The price customers actually pay, not list price. In your own currency.

What you can serve (SAM)

Each filter removes part of the total. Ask for them one at a time.

Certification and export rules set this.
Buyers you can name and contact.
Some buyers will not buy from an unqualified supplier.
As opposed to demand you would have to create.

What you can sell (SOM)

The smaller of what you can build and what you can fund, times the share you can win.

Line or supplier capacity.
Yield at that capacity.
Cash for inventory and receivables. In your own currency.
Parts, labour, and freight until the customer pays. In your own currency.
Within the time your sales cycle allows.
Press 0–2 to answer
18 / 18 SCORED · RESULT BELOW

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Send your result to yourself. If you want, an engineer will go through your manufacturing, certification, and cash gaps with you in a free 15-minute review. No sales sequence.

How it works

The checklist. 18 items, each traceable to a published investor or accelerator criterion. Score each 0, 1, or 2. The maximum is 36. The four bands describe preparation, not prospects.

The market stack. A hardware bottom-up is a stack, and each layer should be dated and sourced:

TAM = units in the category per year × realistic average selling price
SAM = TAM × geography you can ship to
          × segments you can reach
          × qualification status
          × share you replace rather than create
SOM = the smaller of
          units you can build (capacity × yield)
          units you can fund (working capital ÷ cash per unit)
      × share you can win in the cycle

Not the headline. A calculator that reports only TAM reports the number that matters least. The smaller of what you can build and what you can fund is the honest SOM. The output is a planning estimate with stated assumptions, not a forecast and not a valuation.

What the score is not. It is not a prediction of funding, a valuation, or an investor's interest, and it is not advice to raise. It measures how much of the published criteria you can currently show evidence for. A high score with no revenue is still a high score; a low score with paying customers is still a low score on this instrument. It is deliberately blind to product quality as judged by users, team chemistry, and whether the market is a good bet. No checklist can score those.

Sources

Researched 2026-10-22. Refreshed quarterly; next refresh 2027-01-22.

FAQ

Questions founders ask

How is the checklist scored?

You score each of 18 items 0, 1, or 2. Zero means not started, one means in progress, and two means there is a dated, written artifact that someone else could check. The total is out of 36, and it falls in one of four bands that describe preparation. Your top gaps are the items you scored 0, then 1, in checklist order, up to five.

Does a high score mean I will raise money?

No. The score is not a prediction of funding, a valuation, or an investor's interest, and it is not advice to raise. It measures how much of the published criteria you can currently show evidence for. It cannot see product quality, team chemistry, or whether the market is a good bet.

Why size the market bottom-up?

Because a single market-size number hides the work. Counting customers and what each is worth shows where the number comes from, and top-down report figures are often not specific to the segment you are in. A hardware stack also has different failure modes at each layer, so the calculator asks for every input separately.

What does SOM mean here?

SOM is what you can realistically sell. For hardware it is capped twice: by the units you can build (capacity times yield) and by the units you can fund (working capital divided by cash per unit). The smaller of the two, times the share you can win, is your SOM in units. The page tells you which limit is binding.

What happens to my answers?

Your answers and numbers are encoded in the page link (the part after #) so you can share them with a cofounder. We record anonymous usage analytics, including your score, to improve the tool. We only get your email if you choose to send your result.

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